The results were essentially the same. Players who are younger, who score, and who played for winning teams in college do not produce more wins in the NBA. On Tuesday, Ford said that Wiggins should be a "no brainer" for the No. That included acquiring Clint Capela in a trade with the Houston Rockets. Which only illustrates how often the dreams on draft day are not realized. Until it was revealed Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his foot, most mock drafts argued that Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, and Embiid would be the first three choices in the 2014 draft. But Bowie was above average early in his career. gives lottery teams the rights to a player for four years if all options are exercised. In the case of Adam Morrison, he was so unproductive that he never even played four seasons. To see how much these three factors matter, consider the following two hypothetical players. Please check your email for a confirmation. 2016 (Los Angeles Lakers): D’Angelo Russell – PG – Ohio State, Los Angeles Lakers guard D'Angelo Russell (1) controls the ball against the Detroit Pistons during the…. 1981 (Detriot Pistons): Isiah Thomas – PG – Indiana, Detroit Pistons' Isiah Thomas (11) goes up for a basket as Los Angeles Lakers' Sam Perkins…. And relative to many other players selected with the top three choices in the draft, Bowie was actually a “good” player. The youngest Ball brother also has tremendous range from the outside and can pass with the best of them. Consider the following 10 names: Evan Turner, Hasheem Thabeet, Michael Beasley, O.J. The 6-foot-3 guard averaged 18.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists for the Tar Heels as a freshman last season. It’s somewhat surprising that the Hornets boasted such a bad record this season. These two factors, though, don’t have much impact on where a player is selected in the draft. 1976 (San Francisco Warriors) – Rick Barry – G – Miami, Rick Barry #24 of the Golden State Warriors poses for a portrait circa 1975 in Oakland,…. If not, the person tasked with replacing him will be taking over an expansion-level roster. Chicago made the smart decision to play stud youngster Zach LaVine at the three more often this season. LeBron James and Kevin Durant have squared off 23 times, with James holding an 18-5 edge. Teams are in the lottery because they are bad. And each was a below-average performer after four years in to his career (the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement gives lottery teams the rights to a player for four years if all options are exercised). Data shows that the players drafted early often fizzle out once they start playing in the NBA. Two of these players are in the Hall of Fame. All his box score stats, except points scored, are the same as the average player in the sample. On draft night these players were certainly considered “good.” But their performance in the NBA failed to match this expectation. And then back in 1984, the top three choices were Hakeem Olajuwon, Sam Bowie, and Michael Jordan. Or should it be the older player with worse teammates, who is also much better with respect to most everything a player does on the court? Evan Turner, one of the top draft picks of this century, was a below-average performer four years into his NBA career. Jerry West of the Los Angeles Lakers crashes against Willis Reed of the New York Knicks as he passes off to Wilt Chamberlain in the opening minutes of the first game of the NBA Championship playoff series in Inglewood, Cal., Tuesday, May 1, 1973. All of this brings us to the case of Andrew Wiggins. 1 draft pick, which goes to Cleveland this year. And he played for a winner last year (that didn’t quite reach the Final Four). Of all these players, Wiggins—with an effective field goal percentage of 49.9%—ranked 842nd in shooting efficiency. And the story gets worse if we ask the following: How often are all the top three choices in a single draft “good” players? One of the top recruits in the nation last year, Anthony would be just that. January 15, 2017, © (Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images) He might not be a No. Seattle won the game 91-87 and now lead the Western Conference Championship 2-0. losing as much as possible in 2013-14 would increase the chances of a plum spot in the 2014 draft, which conventional wisdom would say would let the team grab new, special talent. The young scorer on a winning team last year? Prior to Embiid’s injury, some thought the Sixers would be able to land Wiggins. Wiggins is somewhat similar to the first player in our hypothetical scenario. But instead of being 19, he is 22 (about average for a player in our sample). Cleveland Cavaliers' LeBron James, left, greets Seattle Supersonics' rookie Kevin Durant (35) before an NBA basketball game, in Cleveland. That’s unless, perhaps, coaches and managers start to rethink how they evaluate young talent. NBA rules make it so that losing as much as possible in 2013-14 would increase the chances of a plum spot in the 2014 draft, which conventional wisdom would say would let the team grab new, special talent. Except for scoring, he is three standard deviations better than average with respect to shooting efficiency, rebounds, steals, assists, and blocked shots (in other words, he is well beyond average). Most Recent Stories. But in a weak class, getting a core player outside the top five is a win.